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Lee, below is a link to an analysis of all of the recent polling on this race, which also gives some historical perspective on polling in the past.
On Tuesday night, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal "Poll" came out that showed Obama leading Romney by 6 points. But if one looked at the "poll's" cross tabs, it became immediately clear that NBC had sampled 11% more Democrats than Republicans to get that result. 11% more Democrats didn't vote in 2008.
Likewise, nearly every other "poll" out there has used Democrat oversamples in their research; most of them publish that info as a PDF file, but some pollsters refuse to reveal their "polling samples", most notably CNN. But I challenge anyone to show me a "poll" that oversamples Republicans.
Last year,after bin Laden was taken out, the Associated Press did a "poll" that sampled almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans. That "poll" showed that Obama ONLY got a 3 point bounce in job approval.
"Polls" these days are solely designed to shape public opinion, not report public opinion. Gallup was forever tainted by their polling partnership with CNN, who threw them under the bus in 2007 to hire a polling firm founded by a Clinton Family Groupie named Vinod Gupta.
I think you will find that Obama is in polling trouble. He's already spent $3 million this year on internal polling, which is telling.
Anyway here is the link that analyzes all of this year's "polling" and puts it into historical perspective. Have fun!
2 comments:
Lee, below is a link to an analysis of all of the recent polling on this race, which also gives some historical perspective on polling in the past.
On Tuesday night, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal "Poll" came out that showed Obama leading Romney by 6 points. But if one looked at the "poll's" cross tabs, it became immediately clear that NBC had sampled 11% more Democrats than Republicans to get that result. 11% more Democrats didn't vote in 2008.
Likewise, nearly every other "poll" out there has used Democrat oversamples in their research; most of them publish that info as a PDF file, but some pollsters refuse to reveal their "polling samples", most notably CNN. But I challenge anyone to show me a "poll" that oversamples Republicans.
Last year,after bin Laden was taken out, the Associated Press did a "poll" that sampled almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans. That "poll" showed that Obama ONLY got a 3 point bounce in job approval.
"Polls" these days are solely designed to shape public opinion, not report public opinion. Gallup was forever tainted by their polling partnership with CNN, who threw them under the bus in 2007 to hire a polling firm founded by a Clinton Family Groupie named Vinod Gupta.
I think you will find that Obama is in polling trouble. He's already spent $3 million this year on internal polling, which is telling.
Anyway here is the link that analyzes all of this year's "polling" and puts it into historical perspective. Have fun!
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-skewed-toward-obama_648770.html?nopager=1
Weekly Standard--okay. Right on it.
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